Fire with fire

Had an interesting hand at the end of last week where I put myself in a tough spot with a very marginal holding against an aggressive unpredictable opponent. In this particular game, the villain was raising from the blinds every time the action came round to him, and then leading with a full pot every time he got called. This at least was my observation, and I surmised that he must then be doing it light most of the time. So, I decided to limp in position with a very average hand knowing he would raise, and see what developed from there....

Carey ($3/6 No Limit Hold'em)
5 handed

Hero is at seat 0 with $840.20.
Villain is at seat 2 with $558.45. <-- stats of 53/11 and radically ascending Agg Factor
The button is at seat 0.

Villain posts the small blind of $3.
Player1 posts the big blind of $6.

Hero: 9d 8h

Pre-flop: Player2 calls. Player3 folds.
Hero calls. Villain raises to $36.
Player1 folds. Player2 folds. Hero calls.

Flop (board: 7h 3d 9c):

Okay, so I've got TP8K on the flop. At this point, I figure I'm ahead of villains range. I know I'm going to face a pot bet, and I plan to raise immediately to discourage unimproved high cards from continuing. There are no draws to speak of, so I figure if I get played with it will most likely be with some kind of made hand, or air.

Villain bets $84. Hero raises to $180.

Villain goes all-in for $522.45.

The bet came as expected, and so I raised as planned, expecting a slowdown from the villain (no one had yet raised his flop c-bets). Instead, he insta-shoved over my raise, making it $340 more to call.

Now, if he had a monster, I didn't think he would play it so fast, plus given his observed tendencies it just wasn't likely. People who have a strong hand just don't seem to insta-shove in my experience. The only obvious draw was the OESD with T8 or 68, which given my kicker was again pretty unlikely.

Thus, I reasoned he was either moving in with something weak like 22, 44-66, an overpair like TT-AA (quite unlikely given the insta-shove), or overcards/air. I was obviously a dog to his overpairs, but thought they were so unlikely I was getting sufficient odds to call his shove. So, given his stats, my initial read and analysis, I gritted my teeth and made the call.

Hero calls.

Turn (board: 7h 3d 9c Td): <--- pretty safe turn, giving me extra outs if behind

River (board: 7h 3d 9c Td Ah): <--- did not like the river at all, as it completes all Ax hands

Showdown:
Villain shows 6c 6d.
Villain has 6c 6d 9c Td Ah: a pair of sixes.
Hero shows 9d 8h.
Hero has 9d 8h 9c Td Ah: a pair of nines.

Hand Summary:
Hero wins $1126.40 with a pair of nines.

Now against a lot of players, this would be spewy poker. But I'm glad that I made the right read, and had the stones to act on it. Too often I see bad players sit down, give their stack to another player, then leave. To take advantage of these players, you have to get involved in pots with them, and more often than not you will have to do it with pretty weak hands. As long as they are ahead of your opponents range however, this stands to be a profitable move over the long term.

Hope you're weekend was good, look forward to reading your own exploits over the coming week. Best of luck at the tables.