Thursday, October 02, 2008

Breaking even

If you happen to look at my stats on, you might be a little surprised to learn that I'm not a profitable player. According to that site, I (on average) lose money by playing, and am only kept afloat by rake. So have I been lying all this time, pretending that I make decent salary by playing this game for a living? Of course not, but that doesn't change the fact that on FTP I just don't win very often. I don't know why. I try hard. I focus. I think I play well. But, still, I don't really turn a profit. I resolve to change this fact.

Up until now my 'cash cow' for poker profitability has been Ultimate Bet. Always has been. But my cousin, friend and fellow pro has been crushing the games from 1/2 to 3/6 on FTP for the last year and I can't let him be the only one. So, I'm going to start picking my FTP game apart on PokerTracker, studying and using all available tools to turn my results around on that site. There must be something fundamentally wrong with my game to have such different results, and I need to find out what it is.

Aside from PT, I plan on getting more familiar with PokerEV to evaluate my play and see whether I'm getting my money in good or bad. I also plan on using the latest tool for calculating poker hand odds kindly provided by the folks at PokerListings. With these 2 applications I should be much better able to evaluate my play, and clearly see where my problems are. There is of course an outside chance that it's all down to variance, but I think after more than 6 months of play I can file that idea into the 'Highly Unlikely' folder.

Think that's it for today, after a long, brutal and ultimately unprofitable session yesterday (including losing a 2k pot on a 75% AIPF) I plan on playing just a few short sessions today and getting back on track. Luckily I've already won several hundred on FTP, maybe things are turning round already.....


Alan aka RecessRampage said...

1-2NL FR on FTP is a joke. I never checked your stats on tableratings. It really doesn't matter though does it? If you're winning, you're winning. If you're not, you're feeling the brunt of it, regardless of whether others pile on or not.

Keep your head up and keep playing tough. Obviously, from what I read, you're doing fine.

SirFWALGMan said...

I think break even is excellent and I strive for it all the time. My book is coming out soon. Anyways. I would be very interested in any observations or findings you have for why you do worse on FT.

Some obvious possibilities would be:

1. Something different in the structure / tables / etc.

2. Players on FT are much better than UB. Sharks vs Tards, conversely possibly players on FT are much worse than on UB hence with less hands you have more negative variance maybe?

3. Weird factors like not being use to the interface so not feeling as comfortable as your home site.

Anyway I find this line of thought fairly interesting and would like to hear a professionals opinion.

Amatay said...

is that table rating accurate?? Looks like a load of bollocks to me??

SubZero said...

Good question, I have been assuming it's pretty accurate. Don't have every hand played on FTP in PT, so can't really check.
Will have a play with PT etc. and post my findings (if any!)....