Analysis

Analysis

I put this hand down as a mistake on my part, but now I'm not so sure.
I was fairly new to this table, and it had a very high preflop raise average.

Hand #45622719-30234 at East Peoria (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 12/Sep/07 18:17:09

bloomebay posts the small blind of $2.
Dosharaithe posts the big blind of $4.

Mr_Erlandsson: -- --
bloomebay: -- --
Dosharaithe: -- --
Incrediboy: Kh Ks
richgarces: -- --
DamigeX: -- --

Pre-flop:
Incrediboy calls.
richgarces folds.
DamigeX raises to $12.
Mr_Erlandsson folds.
bloomebay folds.
Dosharaithe folds.
Incrediboy calls.

Being dealt KK UTG, I decided that I would change from my usual raise and call (for deception), hoping to encourage a large steal raise from the cutoff or the button, who was the table big stack. Instead of that situation, there was a small raise into what was potentially a multiway pot from the cutoff. I didn't know what to make of it, as it didn't suggest great strength seemed to be indicating a drawing hand like 98s. As it didn't give me much to steal, I smooth called to continue the deception.

Flop (board: 3h 9c Td):
Incrediboy checks. DamigeX bets $11. Incrediboy
raises to $35. DamigeX calls.
My opponent bets under 1/2 pot with position. I decide to see if he has actually connected or missed the flop entirely. He calls quickly, so I have to assume he caught something he liked here. Am thinking he has at least TP, or maybe an OESD.

Turn (board: 3h 9c Td Jh):
Incrediboy bets $60. DamigeX calls.
The turn I didn't like, but if he had TPTK it's now just been compromised, and as JT could easily be in my range I felt he could credit me with 2 pair. Obviously, if he was raising with 87 or KQ he's now made his hand, and will surely raise. I'm betting here aiming to get anything weaker (including draws that have improved slightly like JQ) to fold. Since he merely calls, I put him on a strong non-nut hand: have him pegged as 2 pair or better 90% of the time.

River (board: 3h 9c Td Jh 6d):
Incrediboy bets $75. DamigeX calls.
The 6 changes nothing. He called the check-raise and the bet on the turn, and whatever he has I know he isn't folding it. If I check I know he's value betting here, which is why I lead out for around 1/3 of the pot as a blocking bet. Since he didn't raise, I thought for a moment that I might actually win at showdown.

Showdown:
Incrediboy shows Kh Ks.
Incrediboy has Kh Ks 9c Td Jh: a pair of kings.
DamigeX shows 9d 9s.
DamigeX has 9d 9s 9c Td Jh: three nines.

$3 is raked from a pot of $370.
DamigeX wins $367 with three nines.
OK, so he was massive all along after flopping a set, but he played it very passively, especially given my bet sizes (turn: $60 into $100, river: $75 into $220).

Deception play (sustained)
I lost $180 on this hand, and I'm sure there are arguments for folding this hand after my flop check-raise was called.
I do maintain though, that by playing deceptively it is VERY difficult to know before showdown whether you are miles ahead or miles behind, as you have given no indication that you are holding what normally is a monster hand. In this situation, I think I may even have saved myself some money:
Deception play (brief)
Say instead of calling the flop raise, I reraised as you normally would. Say I take it up to $40. With 99, my opponent may easily call with position and enough behind to hope for a set. So the flop comes out and my opponent has a set. I have to lead here, as I do not want to give a free card in case my opponent has an A. So I bet $75 into the $86 pot. As I'm new to the table, I haven't got a great read on my opponent, he could be floating with nothing more than position and 2 overcards. So now, to be sure I'm beaten, I bet $100 into the pot, which is now nearly $240. So I bet, and when he raises I can fold, as the board is sufficiently scary. Still, I just lost $40 + $75 + $100, totalling $215.
Aggressive play (i.e. normal)
If I raise UTG and get called, the cost could be similar to this: $14 flop raise, $60 on a check raise with my opair, and $80 probe on the scary turn followed by a fold). This comes to $154, which is the least expensive option of play.

Analysis
Even though my normal play appears to be the least expensive when I'm behind, I feel pretty sure that my deceptive play can net me more profits those times I'm ahead. Of course, my opponent needs to catch a piece of the board or have a draw to continue, but by disguising my hand I should often get action from TP or 2nd pair, especially when my opponent is aggressive. The above play could easily have ensued from my opponent raising with QJs, calling my checkraise with an OESD to the nuts, then refusing to lay down TP + OESD, on the turn or the river. He would only usually do this if he thought I had nothing much stronger, and this would only be the case if I'd been deceptive.

As always though, am keen for comments and criticisms on how I played this, as what doesn't kill me only makes me stronger.

PostScript... My thoughts go out to all those in America whose lives were touched or taken by the attacks of 9/11. The world remembers as life goes on.