Monday, March 26, 2007


Well it's still going well, and I think my game is pretty tight, but I'm still wondering whether I am enjoying the sweet side of variance. Can't recall the last big bad beat I took, although I don't think I've handed any out either. If things remain good a month or two longer, I will be hitting the 20k barrier, at which point I'm going to make a small withdrawal and enjoy some of my hard-won gambling gains!
Been keeping tabs on my cousin who went pro nearly a month ago now, and he's been having to work pretty hard to keep up the average. Still not sure whether I could handle it, but I think the question is more would I want to? Have definitely been considering it however, and if I can maintain the $100p/hr average I may have to discuss it in earnest with key friends and family. And if they advise against turning pro, well I guess I'll just have to buy them off! ;)
Made a very good play over the weekend which ended up getting me an opponent's stack through using deception.

Hand #40567670-17110 at Delta (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 25/Mar/07 07:53:58

jpaws is at seat 0 with $418.20.
tenkei is at seat 1 with $230.
Incrediboy is at seat 3 with $441.
Pokabrat is at seat 4 with $944.35.
hockeyfiend22 is at seat 5 with $756.30.
The button is at seat 2.

Incrediboy posts the small blind of $2.
Pokabrat posts the big blind of $4.

jpaws: -- --
tenkei: -- --
Incrediboy: Qh Kc
Pokabrat: -- --
hockeyfiend22: -- --

hockeyfiend22 folds. jpaws calls. tenkei folds.
Incrediboy calls. Pokabrat checks.

Flop (board: 6h Ts Ad):
Incrediboy bets $12. Pokabrat folds. jpaws calls.

Turn (board: 6h Ts Ad Jd):
Incrediboy checks. jpaws bets $36. Incrediboy
raises to $90. jpaws calls.

River (board: 6h Ts Ad Jd 2d):
Incrediboy bets $216. jpaws goes all-in for $312.20.
Incrediboy calls.

jpaws shows As Ah.
jpaws has As Ah Ts Ad Jd: three aces.
Incrediboy shows Qh Kc.
Incrediboy has Qh Kc Ts Ad Jd: straight, ace high.

Hand #40567670-17110 Summary:

$2 is raked from a pot of $840.40.
Incrediboy wins $838.40 with straight, ace high.

Now I know that betting into 2 players from first position with nothing but a gutshot does not seem a +EV play. If neither player has an A, I can usually take the pot uncontested on this (seemingly) draw-free flop, but if I'm called or raised I will usually be beaten and have to lay it down. However, this pot bet hides my hand better than a Klingon cloaking device, and if I hit my miracle and someone else has a strong hand, they are going to lose a lot of money finding out they are only second best, which was what happened here.
Checking like I had been caught out on the turn, then after my opponent bet putting in a big 'take-it-down-now' raise was designed to do 2 things: 1) reveal I had what I thought was a monster (JJ, TT, 66, maybe AJ), and 2) get more money in the pot so it all might go in on the river. There was also a possibility I was putting in a big bluff with nothing or maybe the diamond flush draw.
The river completed the flush, but I wasn't at all concerned about it. If anything, it helped me as I could put in a big bet that would look like a flush bluff(as opposed to the smaller flush value bet), which my adept opponent correctly saw through, and raised the final $100. Bingo, I call, and he turns over his flopped top set and loses to my turned Broadway. I still don't think he knows what hit him.
Two things to note here:
I got lucky. And I'm not talking about hitting the Jd. I was more lucky that he had flopped a set, otherwise I'd never have gotten his entire stack. Luck isn't just getting the cards you need; it's about your opponent also getting theirs.
Implied odds make all the difference. I bet on the flop to steal the pot, not hoping to make a straight. I'll frequently get called, and in those cases I've wasted $12. But in the cases I'm called, I hit, and my opponent has a monster, I'm assured a big pay off. Even when they only have a mediocre hand, if I hit I will usually get about 10BB more from them. And that's why I'm prepared to make these bets a permanent part of my game.

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