Deeper thoughts

An idea that is not dangerous is unworthy of being called an idea at all - Oscar Wilde

Following my recent reversal of fortune at FTP (specifically me playing and winning with something approaching consistency) I have been getting involved in more $2/4 and $3/6 games, including the deep tables for both. I played the following hand yesterday, and couldn't help thinking I would have won it if my thinking had been a little clearer.

Full Tilt Poker Table Dunk (deep 6) - $3/$6 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: Villain ($618)
Seat 2: ***** ($845.35)
Seat 3: ***** ($618)
Seat 4: ***** ($1,314)
Seat 5: ***** ($723.45)
Seat 6: Hero ($1,200)
vvm94 posts the small blind of $3
wuleq posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Kh Ah]
zero2lose folds
hammer_6161 folds
Hero raises to $21
Villain calls $21
vvm94 folds
wuleq folds

The villain of the hand was a tight regular, running at around 22/19. When he called on the button I assigned him a non-premium hand, most likely a small pair or suited connector. He was not the type to play suited garbage. There was $51 in the pot when we took the flop heads up.

*** FLOP *** [Tc 2s 9h]
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero bets $42
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain calls $42

With a nice rainbow flop, I bet out quite strongly hoping to take it down there. After a long pause, the villain decides to call. At this point I can see him having a TP hand like JT, an OESD like QJs or 87s, or a possible set which he is slowplaying. I decided I'm not done with the hand, and would see what the turn brought.

*** TURN *** [Tc 2s 9h] [4h]
Hero checks
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain bets $80
Hero raises to $210
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain has requested TIME
Villain calls $130

After my check, the villain again tanked before putting out a bet. I thought to myself: he's not protecting a hand, he has a draw and is trying to scare me off. So as you can see I actually liked the turned flush draw enough to put in a decent check-raise. Again, the villain tanked for a long time before calling and I now completely ruled out a set which would surely push in this spot. I now put the villain on exactly QJs or 87s, and was confident I was way ahead.

*** RIVER *** [Tc 2s 9h 4h] [8d]
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero has requested TIME
Hero checks

OK, having narrowed my opponents holding to 2 hands, one of them just made the nuts, and the other just became nothing more than a bluff catcher. A bet into the former would prompt an allin raise, and a bet into the latter (given the strength I'd shown) would prompt a rapid fold. My thinking at the time however was that my opponent would not have called a turn check-raise with an OESD and no overcards, so I decided he was far more likely to have QJs then 87s, and thus have the nuts. So thinking I opted to check, knowing that I had now lost the hand.

Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain has requested TIME
Villain checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero shows [Kh Ah] Ace King high
Villain shows [7s 8s] a pair of Eights
Villain wins the pot ($552) with a pair of Eights

Alas my opponent wasn't as sensible as I had given him credit for, and I lost to a measly pair of 8s. A pair that would surely have folded to one last bet on the river: I realised too late that a bluff would have been profitable. I had invested $270 in the hand, and on the river we both had $350 behind. As the pot was $550, and my opponent only had $350 left, if I was to bluff it would have to be suitably small - without being so tiny it would get looked up by 3P7K.

[EDIT] Had to correct this, my first set of figures were miles off! [EDIT] Lets ignore my thinking that he was more likely to have an OESD and overcards, and say he was 50-50 to have either QJs or 87s. If I had bet 175 to win the 550, and he folds 50% of the time, then (discounting what I have already invested) I win $550 half the time, and lose $175 the other half. That's a $187 +EV spot if my thinking is correct.

As you can see from the above illustration, even if he has a 75% chance of having the nuts, it works out as winning $550 x 0.25 = $137 and losing 175 x 0.75 = $131 which is still +EV. So, even though I knew I was beaten, a bluff lead was still profitable and should have been attempted. My only consolation was that my read was bang on. If anyone agrees or thinks otherwise please drop me your thoughts!

The other hand I was thinking about (is it weird that I think of poker hands in the shower??) was the following one I played just this afternoon.

Full Tilt Poker Table Kilt (deep 6) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 2: Hero ($800)
Seat 3: ***** ($461.40)
Seat 4: ***** ($563.45)
Seat 5: Villain ($798)
Seat 6: ***** ($867)
***** posts the small blind of $2
Hero posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [4h 4d]
***** folds
***** calls $4
Villain raises to $18
***** folds
Hero calls $14
***** folds
*** FLOP *** [4c 3h 8d]
Hero bets $32
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain has requested TIME
Villain calls $32

Pretty standard flop lead out with a set on a ragged dry flop. If he has an overpair he'll usually raise, or a with a big A or piece of the board he'll probably call. I obviously hope for the former, but am happy he calls.

*** TURN *** [4c 3h 8d] [Ad]

The Ace is an interesting turn card. Either it helps my opponent, or crushes him if he has 99-KK, which given the flop action is unlikely. At this point I'm thinking he is more likely to have a big A, and so I opt for the check-raise option, so that he can value bet an Ace or bluff an excellent scare card.

Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero checks
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain bets $77
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to $256
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain has requested TIME
Villain folds
Hero wins the pot ($257)

Now, unfortunately my opponent folded after betting the turn, but then I raised strongly enough to force him to fold any flush draw or pair. The question is, should I have bet a whole lot less? With such deep stacks, I can't just push in that spot and try and represent a weak hand that picked up say a flush draw and a gutter.

What would a min-raise do? Look really fishy I think is the answer. It might even elicit a 3-bet from a TP type hand. Providing I can find a fold if the river completes the flush (nothing else really scares me) and I'm facing lots of pressure, I think a min-raise in that spot might be the best shot at getting his whole stack.

Without check-raising though, I think continuing to bet when the A comes shows too much strength. Even if I bet small when it comes, again he folds all overpairs and is probably very hesitant about doing anything other than calling if he has an Ace, no matter his kicker strength.

Maybe I'm missing value here though, does anyone else have a different line here? If so, again I'd like to hear what it is. Thanks.