Thursday, July 19, 2007

Folding a set!!!

Interesting hand came up when playing some $3/6 the other night, and would appreciate any comments/thoughts on how I should actually have played it.
Table: typical $3/6, with at least one pf raise nearly every hand.
I'm dealt JdJs in the BB. One player limps, the cutoff makes it $34. All fold, I smooth call the $28 extra, as usually I would re-raise here but here I'm balancing my play.

Flop comes: Ks Th 9h Pot $74
I check, intending to check call. The cutoff also checks. OK, this narrows his range a lot. My first instinct is that this guy just flopped a monster. I'm thinking a set or the nut straight, maybe with a straight flush draw also. Other hands possible are an underpair from 66-88 or QQ, or a monster draw such as AhQh.

Turn: Ks Th 9h (Jc) Pot $74
Now I'm thrilled and horrified by this card. Obviously I'm now beating 2 of the 3 flopped sets I may be facing, but am a dog to AQ, QQ, and am only 27% to improve against the idiot straight! Against KK I have only 5 outs. I decide I want to see the river, so I make a blocking bet to represent the Q, so I bet $45, roughly 2/3 of the pot. Unfortunately, my opponent moves allin for $420 more.

Now I can really narrow his range, namely to a flopped set or a straight made on the flop or turn, and not the idiot straight at that. I don't put him on AQ, as he would milk with this. So, the more likely hand seems to be QJs, especially given the flop check and the apparent scared push on the turn, but is it likely every J is out? QQ is the next most likely candidate, and would tie in with all the action so far, apart from the size of the push. The alternative is a set that doesn't read me for the Q and hopes I lay down. Against the sets, I'm 66% to win. Against everything else at this point, with only the river to come I'm a solid dog. With all this in mind, I folded my 2nd set.

Am I missing a hand here? Should I include AhKh in his range? Most importantly, should I have folded here? Please let me know how I could have played this better.


Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Honestly, that's a tough hand. Without knowing anything about the cutoff, his range is pretty wide on the preflop raise. One thing I will say though is that this is why playing these pairs out of position is so hard. I think folding was the right move but there are probably couple of moves you may have want to put earlier.

For example, I understand the varying the play aspect but I don't like playing JJ out of position so I would probably reraise preflop. But again, here, I think it's more of a personal preference. What I really hate here is the check on the flop. You mentioned you were gonna check call. But what was the plan after that? It's one thing if you had a monster draw or something but check calling doesn't do anything in terms of finding out what the opponent has, even after the turn. I actually wouldn't have minded throwing out a bet on the flop to see what he does. The turn card was one of those cards that I think hurt you more than it helped you. Maybe another option was to check the turn to see if he will let you see the river relatively cheap. If the board pairs, you I think you'd have to be willing to go broke unless it brings a straight flush possibility. Even then, if the opponent shoves, you'd have to call. Obv. Your opponent could have already had the Q but also a flush draw and was hoping you'd call with another Q, virtually drawing for a tie.

Nice lay down though. That's tough but one you have to make.

SubZero said...

I forgot about KhQh. I think this is a very likely hand, as he would have a straight and a great free-roll if he believes I have the non-nut straight also. This hand (or possibly the unlikely AhQh) would explain the allin, as he would want all the money in when he had a tie with a redraw to the nuts.